Climate-change “scientists” and their political allies, pleading for trillions of tax dollars to control CO2, are shrieking: “We’re almost out of time.”
October 18, 2021 By Jerry Carlson They’re right. An overwhelming 30-year “Pacific Decadal Oscillation” (PDO) trend toward global cooling will soon expose man-made greenhouse-gas false alarms. The 26th UN Climate Change Conference Oct. 31-Nov. 12 will convene with a renewed urgency to secure massive tax transfers to “green” causes — before “settled science” becomes disrupted.
A long-term downtrend in sunspot cycles is poised to amplify impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, defined as the cycle of average surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean north of 20 degrees north latitude.
The data are clear, but deliberately ignored by climate-change activists eager to extract billions from taxpayers numbed by the “scientific consensus” of controlling carbon dioxide.
The sun and Pacific Ocean have cycled through warm and cold epochs long before UN climate conferees scented a profitable pretext in global warming.
I’m old enough to remember writing articles quoting climatologists frantic about global cooling in the 1970s. Global average temperatures dropped during 1940-79. I interviewed climatologist Dr. Reid Bryson at the University of Wisconsin, who emphasized that global climates continually changed — centuries before the Industrial Age. He authored the book Climates of Hunger: Mankind and the World’s Changing Weather, published in 1979. Bryson and his grad students documented that a North American cooling around 1200 A.D. drove High Plains tribes southward into southern Iowa and Kansas.
I also consulted often with another climatologist I greatly respect, Dr. Iben Browning. He co-authored Climate and the Affairs of Men with Nels Winkless III. The second edition of their book, published in 1987, is in such demand that a hardcover version is priced at $1,036 on Amazon. His data show that historically, warm cycles favored peace, abundant food and prosperity. Cooling cycles descended into hunger and human conflicts.
Data that clashes with today’s climate-consortium narrative is systematically ridiculed or relegated to heretical websites, like this one. Google and Facebook “defund” or censor online climate reports that conflict with “official” UN climate models.
Example: A site labeled notrickszone.com recently posted these nearby charts and an article by David Archibald showing the PDO is entering a 30- to 40-year cooling trend. Analysts first discovered this cycle when searching for causes of decades-long swings in Alaskan salmon runs.
In the linked article, Archibald writes:
“The significance … is that the apparent global warming over the last 40 years, that has been studied in great detail, that has caused great angst, is likely to be just an artifact of the phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation.
“Salmon production is not the only thing controlled by the state of the Pacific decadal oscillation. The greens and ecoloons had been predicting a new ice age right up to the 1976 Pacific climate shift. With the change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in that year they flipped to predicting warming instead.
“There is still the potential for a scary scenario out of this. At 44 years long, the current positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is long in the tooth and should be reversing soon of its own accord. This will coincide with the rapid drop in solar activity underway, speeding up the cooling process.”
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation correlates closely with variations measured in Earth’s gravitational field. The longest-running data on this series is the “aa index” measure of the disturbance level of the Earth’s magnetic field based on magnetometer observations on opposite sides of the planet: Hartland observatory in the UK and Canberra observatory in Australia.
When the observations from 1868 to 2020 are smoothed and plotted against the long-term average, the graph shows a decline from about 1885 to 1933. Then, gravitational forces accelerated to a peak in 2006 followed by a trend reversal. The decline is now underway. Writer David Archibald says this raises concerns about our possible entry into a new cold period.
An exceptionally cold antarctic winter just occurred, but most climate activists shrug it off as “an anomaly.”
A renewed cooling for about 30 years is of course relevant to North American agriculture. In recent years, Northern Plains farmers have greatly expanded corn and soybean production. This season’s cool, dry weather in the Dakotas could be a harbinger of a longer-term trend reversal.
At least a few contrarians point out that colder climates are the real threat to humanity. David Simon offers a summary of those points in the Oct. 20 American Spectator.
Regardless of warming or cooling climate, we’re continually encouraging growers to become more “resilient.” That means management strategies such as:
- Relying more on natural soil biology rather than NPK and chemicals.
- Diversifying crops, especially adding cover crops.
- Looking for ways to grow more profit margin per acre, not just farming more acres.